Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- George SpringerBatting3-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Eric LauerPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Guardians- Lane ThomasBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Logan AllenPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Manzardo homered to left (380 feet).10–6
- 8Jones hit sacrifice fly to center, Santana scored.10–5
- 8Springer homered to center (421 feet), Clement scored, Guerrero Jr. scored and Kirk scored.10–4
- 7Thomas homered to left (389 feet), Rodríguez scored and Kwan scored.6–4
- 7Clase singled to center, Guerrero Jr. scored and Springer scored, Schneider to third.6–1
- 6Santana homered to left center (398 feet).4–1
- 5Kirk singled to right, Clement scored.4–0
- 4Straw safe at third on fielding error by right fielder Rodríguez, Springer scored.3–0
- 1Kirk singled to center, Clement scored.2–0
- 1Clement doubled to left, Bichette scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 55%
- ML TOR -135 / CLE +115
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.8 pts
- TOR: Elo 47.4%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- TOR -124
- CLE +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.5 – 4.0 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −1 | TOR: Eric Lauer: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · CLE: Logan Allen: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +18 Elo | CLE 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 52.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 3.825th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.112th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.322nd of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 20th of 3016–20 | Road vs home | 19–1516th of 30 |
| 5th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 30 |
| 19th of 301496 | Elo rating | 150417th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 44–33 | 37–39 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 19–17 | 11–19 |
| Underdog | 25–16 | 26–20 |
| Overs–unders | 42–35 | 33–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 6–10 CLE in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 16.