Cleveland Guardians at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Steven KwanBatting3-5, 1 RBI
- Luis OrtizPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Athletics- Luis UriasBatting2-4
- Mitch SpencePitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Muncy hit sacrifice fly to left, Rooker scored.4–2
- 7Wynns doubled to right, Bleday scored, Urías to third.4–1
- 2Ramírez singled to center, Kwan scored, Manzardo to second.4–0
- 2Kwan singled to center, Rodríguez scored.3–0
- 2Rodríguez doubled to left, Naylor scored.2–0
- 2Naylor doubled to center, Jones scored on error, Naylor safe at third on throwing error by second baseman Urías.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 55%
- ML CLE -135 / ATH +115
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.6 pts
- CLE: Elo 53.6%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- CLE -124
- ATH +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 5.0 – 4.5 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1440 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +16 | CLE: Luis Ortiz: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATH: Mitch Spence: team allows 0.79 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +25 Elo | CLE 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.315th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.829th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.4 | Margin | −1.629th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 19th of 3018–22 | Road vs home | 15–2529th of 30 |
| 12th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149624th of 30 |
| 18th of 301500 | Elo rating | 144028th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 35–39 | 39–39 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 10–19 | 7–12 |
| Underdog | 25–20 | 32–27 |
| Overs–unders | 33–41 | 46–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 11–3 ATH in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 14.
