Cleveland Guardians at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Steven KwanBatting2-4
- Slade CecconiPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Athletics- Brent RookerBatting2-4
- JP SearsPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 5Fry singled to left, Kwan scored, Fry to second, Ramírez to third.3–0
- 2Jones doubled to right, Arias scored, Jones to third.2–0
- 2Arias singled to left, Martínez scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 51%
- ML CLE -115 / ATH -105
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +8.3 pts
- CLE: Elo 59.3%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- CLE -104
- ATH +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.8 – 4.7 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1439 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −16 | CLE: Slade Cecconi: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · ATH: JP Sears: team allows 0.79 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +66 Elo | CLE 59.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 53.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.216th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.829th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.3 | Margin | −1.629th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 15th of 3019–22 | Road vs home | 15–2629th of 30 |
| 12th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149724th of 30 |
| 18th of 301502 | Elo rating | 143928th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 36–39 | 39–40 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 11–19 | 7–12 |
| Underdog | 25–20 | 32–28 |
| Overs–unders | 33–42 | 46–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 12–3 ATH in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 15.
