Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.Batting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Max ScherzerPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Guardians- Lane ThomasBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Gavin WilliamsPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 10Ramírez singled to left, Martínez scored, Fry to second, Kwan to third.4–5
- 6Thomas homered to left (382 feet).4–4
- 6Clement hit sacrifice fly to center, Kirk scored.4–3
- 6Springer singled to center, Barger scored and Guerrero Jr. scored, Kirk to second.3–3
- 4Arias doubled to center, Jones scored and Schneemann scored.1–3
- 4Guerrero Jr. homered to left center (383 feet).1–1
- 1Ramírez singled to right, Kwan scored, Ramírez safe at second on throwing error by second baseman Giménez.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 53%
- ML TOR +105 / CLE -125
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.2 pts
- CLE: Elo 53.0%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- CLE -114
- TOR +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.1 – 4.4 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −2 | TOR: Max Scherzer: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Gavin Williams: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +21 Elo | CLE 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 3.825th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.114th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.422nd of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 19th of 3017–20 | Road vs home | 19–1617th of 30 |
| 4th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 150014th of 30 |
| 18th of 301498 | Elo rating | 150117th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 45–33 | 37–40 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 20–17 | 11–19 |
| Underdog | 25–16 | 26–21 |
| Overs–unders | 43–35 | 34–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 7–10 CLE in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 17.