Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Addison BargerBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Chris BassittPitching2.0 IP, 8 ER, 3 K
Red Sox- Wilyer AbreuBatting2-6, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Lucas GiolitoPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Toro hit sacrifice fly to left, Duran scored.1–15
- 7González homered to center (446 feet), Narváez scored.1–14
- 6Rafaela homered to left (400 feet), Sogard scored.1–12
- 6Sogard singled to left, Story scored.1–10
- 3Anthony scored on throwing error by catcher Kirk, Toro stole second, Toro to third on error.1–9
- 3Anthony scored on throwing error by catcher Kirk, Toro stole third.1–9
- 3Narváez hit sacrifice fly to center, Duran scored, Anthony to third.1–8
- 3Toro walked, Rafaela scored, Anthony to second, Duran to third.1–7
- 3Barger doubled to right, Straw scored.1–6
- 2Story singled to right, Toro scored and Abreu scored.0–6
- 2Abreu doubled to right, Anthony scored, Toro to third.0–4
- 1Abreu homered to right (357 feet), Toro scored and Narváez scored.0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 53%
- ML TOR -125 / BOS +105
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.2 pts
- TOR: Elo 49.1%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- TOR -114
- BOS +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.4 – 4.1 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −7 | TOR: Chris Bassitt: team allows 0.28 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Lucas Giolito: team allows 0.37 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +6 Elo | BOS 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 52.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.611th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.623rd of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.1 | Margin | 0.019th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 30 |
| 14th of 3019–21 | Road vs home | 22–1817th of 30 |
| 6th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 150017th of 30 |
| 17th of 301504 | Elo rating | 149521st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 48–33 | 41–42 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 20–17 | 17–29 |
| Underdog | 28–16 | 24–13 |
| Overs–unders | 45–36 | 39–44 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 17–17 BOS in their last 34 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 34.