Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Andres GimenezBatting3-4, 3 RBI
- Jose BerriosPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Red Sox- Jarren DuranBatting1-4
- Brayan BelloPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8Giménez singled to left, Kirk scored and Springer scored, Clement to third.9–0
- 8Straw hit sacrifice fly to center, Guerrero Jr. scored.7–0
- 8Springer singled to right, Barger scored, Kirk to second, Guerrero Jr. to third.6–0
- 7Giménez walked, Guerrero Jr. scored, Clement to second, Kirk to third.5–0
- 7Kirk doubled to left, Barger scored, Guerrero Jr. to third.4–0
- 3Clement singled to center, Springer scored.3–0
- 2Bichette singled to center, Clement scored, Giménez to second.2–0
- 1Springer singled to center, Guerrero Jr. scored, Kirk to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 53%
- ML TOR +105 / BOS -125
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- BOS: Elo 51.9%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- BOS -114
- TOR +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.1 – 4.4 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −2 | TOR: Jose Berrios: team allows 0.00 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Brayan Bello: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +13 Elo | BOS 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 51.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.69th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.623rd of 30 |
| 19th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.117th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 17th of 3018–21 | Road vs home | 22–1715th of 30 |
| 5th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 150014th of 30 |
| 17th of 301501 | Elo rating | 149819th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 47–33 | 41–41 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 20–17 | 17–28 |
| Underdog | 27–16 | 24–13 |
| Overs–unders | 44–36 | 38–44 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 16–17 BOS in their last 33 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 33.