Detroit Tigers at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Riley GreeneBatting2-5, 2 HR, 6 RBI
- Dylan SmithPitching3.1 IP, 0 ER, 0 K
Nationals- Alex CallBatting3-5
- Trevor WilliamsPitching3.0 IP, 7 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Bell walked, Call scored, Young to second, Millas to third.11–2
- 6Torkelson homered to left center (396 feet).11–1
- 5Wood singled to left, Abrams scored.10–1
- 4Greene homered to center (411 feet), Torres scored and Pérez scored.10–0
- 3Sweeney hit sacrifice fly to center, McKinstry scored.7–0
- 1Rogers homered to right center (387 feet), Torkelson scored and McKinstry scored.6–0
- 1Greene homered to right (380 feet), Keith scored and Torres scored.3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- DET 58%
- ML DET -155 / WSH +130
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.7 pts
- DET: Elo 53.6%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- DET -140
- WSH +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 5.1 – 4.4 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1534 | 1459 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −24 | +7 | DET: Tyler Holton: team allows 1.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · WSH: Trevor Williams: team allows 0.35 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +25 Elo | DET 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 57.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 56.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.414th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 5.228th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.2 | Margin | −0.825th of 30 |
| 9th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–59th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3023–18 | Road vs home | 16–2428th of 30 |
| 30th of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 150017th of 30 |
| 7th of 301534 | Elo rating | 145927th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 46–39 | 44–40 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 31–25 | 1–16 |
| Underdog | 15–14 | 43–24 |
| Overs–unders | 45–40 | 41–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 2–4 WSH in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.