Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- CJ AbramsBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Michael SorokaPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Angels- Kevin NewmanBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Kyle HendricksPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Campero homered to right (414 feet).2–8
- 7Ward walked, Rengifo scored, Trout to second, Schanuel to third.2–7
- 7Newman homered to left (372 feet), Adell scored and Moore scored.2–6
- 7Moore singled to left, Ward scored, Adell to second.2–3
- 7Trout homered to left (400 feet).2–2
- 7Adams singled to center, Lile scored.2–1
- 5Abrams homered to left center (400 feet).1–1
- 2O'Hoppe grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Ward scored, Adell out at second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Angels 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAA 52%
- ML WSH +100 / LAA -120
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.5 pts
- LAA: Elo 54.7%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- LAA -109
- WSH +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.2 – 4.3 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1460 | 1457 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −17 | 0 | WSH: Michael Soroka: team allows 0.85 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · LAA: Kyle Hendricks: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +33 Elo | LAA 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAA 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.317th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.924th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.8 | Margin | −0.624th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3018–24 | Road vs home | 19–1922nd of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 150115th of 30 |
| 25th of 301460 | Elo rating | 145727th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 43–39 | 41–40 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 1–16 | 6–15 |
| Underdog | 42–23 | 35–25 |
| Overs–unders | 39–43 | 43–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 4–3 LAA in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.