Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Josh BellBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jake IrvinPitching4.1 IP, 8 ER, 5 K
Angels- Nolan SchanuelBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jose SorianoPitching4.0 IP, 8 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9García Jr. singled to center, Adams scored and Young scored, Wood to second.15–9
- 9Young reached on bunt single to pitcher, Lile scored, Adams to third.13–9
- 9Adams doubled to left, House scored, Lile to third.12–9
- 8Lowe doubled to right, Wood scored.11–9
- 7House doubled to left, Bell scored.10–9
- 6Wood hit sacrifice fly to right, Adams scored.9–9
- 5Newman reached on fielding error by second baseman García Jr., Adell scored and Wade Jr. scored, Moore safe at third8–9
- 5Lile singled to right, Lowe scored.8–7
- 5Bell grounded out to second, García Jr. scored.7–7
- 5Lowe doubled to right, Wood scored, García Jr. to third.6–7
- 4Trout singled to center, Rengifo scored.5–7
- 4Rengifo singled to center, Moore scored, Rengifo to second.5–6
- 4Abrams singled to right, Young scored, Abrams thrown out at second.5–5
- 4Young doubled to center, Bell scored and Lile scored.4–5
- 3Ward homered to left (351 feet), Trout scored.2–5
- 3Schanuel homered to right (373 feet), Rengifo scored.2–3
- 2Adell homered to right center (372 feet).2–1
- 2Bell homered to left center (420 feet), Lowe scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Angels 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAA 60%
- ML WSH +140 / LAA -165
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.4 pts
- LAA: Elo 54.5%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- LAA -149
- WSH +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.8 – 4.7 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1456 | 1460 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +10 | WSH: Jake Irvin: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Jose Soriano: team allows 0.51 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +31 Elo | LAA 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 60.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 59.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAA 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.217th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.824th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.9 | Margin | −0.623rd of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 24th of 3017–24 | Road vs home | 19–1821st of 30 |
| 9th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 150111th of 30 |
| 27th of 301456 | Elo rating | 146025th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 42–39 | 41–39 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 1–16 | 6–14 |
| Underdog | 41–23 | 35–25 |
| Overs–unders | 38–43 | 42–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 3–3 LAA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.