Athletics at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Nick KurtzBatting3-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jacob LopezPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Tigers- Gleyber TorresBatting1-4
- Jack FlahertyPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 3Kurtz homered to center (438 feet), Butler scored and Rooker scored.3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- DET 62%
- ML ATH +155 / DET -185
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.2 pts
- DET: Elo 62.2%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- DET -166
- ATH +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 3.7 – 4.8 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1436 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −25 | ATH: Jacob Lopez: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · DET: Jack Flaherty: team allows 1.25 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +86 Elo | DET 62.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 65.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 64.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.05th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.8 | Runs allowed | 3.99th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.7 | Margin | +1.13rd of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 20th of 3017–22 | Road vs home | 27–121st of 30 |
| 23rd of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149426th of 30 |
| 28th of 301436 | Elo rating | 15336th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 39–42 | 43–37 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–13 | 28–23 |
| Underdog | 32–29 | 15–14 |
| Overs–unders | 47–34 | 44–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 10–0 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 7–7 DET in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 14.
