Detroit Tigers at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Riley GreeneBatting3-3, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Jack FlahertyPitching2.1 IP, 8 ER, 3 K
Rays- Yandy DiazBatting3-5, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Shane BazPitching5.1 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Keith homered to right (350 feet), Báez scored.8–14
- 8Misner singled to right, Thaiss scored.6–14
- 8Thaiss singled to right, Aranda scored on error and J. Lowe scored on fielding error by right fielder Carpenter, Thaiss to third.6–13
- 8Greene homered to right (381 feet).6–11
- 6Thaiss singled to left, J. Lowe scored.5–11
- 6J. Lowe doubled to right, Mead scored.5–10
- 6Báez hit sacrifice fly to left, Dingler scored.5–9
- 6Meadows doubled to right, Greene scored, Dingler to third.4–9
- 5Díaz homered to right (356 feet).3–9
- 3Misner reached on bunt single to pitcher, Walls scored.3–8
- 3Walls doubled to center, Mead scored, Thaiss scored on throwing error by center fielder Meadows and J. Lowe scored, Walls to third.3–7
- 3Greene homered to center (432 feet), Sweeney scored and Torres scored.3–4
- 1Thaiss doubled to right, Mead scored and Aranda scored, Thaiss to third.0–4
- 1Mead singled to left, Mangum scored, Aranda to second.0–2
- 1Díaz homered to right center (409 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TB 50%
- ML DET -110 / TB -110
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.8 pts
- TB: Elo 52.8%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- TB -100
- DET -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.8 – 3.8 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | −3 | DET: Jack Flaherty: team allows 0.65 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Shane Baz: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +20 Elo | TB 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 51.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.610th of 30 |
| 6th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 3.77th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.1 | Margin | +0.96th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 1st of 3022–16 | Road vs home | 25–2219th of 30 |
| 25th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 150210th of 30 |
| 7th of 301533 | Elo rating | 152511th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 41–35 | 39–36 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 27–23 | 15–26 |
| Underdog | 14–12 | 24–10 |
| Overs–unders | 40–36 | 30–45 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 6–6 TB in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 12.