Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Alexander CanarioBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Bailey FalterPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Tigers- Javier BaezBatting3-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Casey MizePitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Greene homered to right (436 feet), Carpenter scored.3–7
- 7Báez homered to left center (410 feet).3–5
- 6Pérez tripled to center, Greene scored.3–4
- 5Báez homered to center (407 feet).3–3
- 3Canario singled to right, Kiner-Falefa scored and McCutchen scored.3–2
- 2Pérez homered to left center (384 feet), Torkelson scored.1–2
- 2Frazier grounded out to first, Horwitz scored, Bart to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- DET 64%
- ML PIT +165 / DET -200
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.4 pts
- DET: Elo 59.4%, market 63.9%
- Fair odds
- DET -177
- PIT +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.6 – 4.9 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1466 | 1532 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −9 | PIT: Bailey Falter: team allows 0.46 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Casey Mize: team allows 0.44 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +66 Elo | DET 59.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 61.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 60.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 63.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.2 | Runs scored | 4.85th of 30 |
| 11th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 3.77th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.7 | Margin | +1.14th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 30 |
| 28th of 3010–25 | Road vs home | 24–113rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 301513 | Opponent Elo | 149425th of 30 |
| 24th of 301466 | Elo rating | 15325th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 35–38 | 39–34 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–17 | 25–23 |
| Underdog | 30–21 | 14–11 |
| Overs–unders | 27–46 | 37–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 4–4 DET in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.