Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Spencer HorwitzBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Mitch KellerPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Cubs- Dansby SwansonBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Colin ReaPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 10Happ singled to right, Bruján scored, Tucker to third.2–3
- 1Swanson singled to right, Busch scored.2–2
- 1Suzuki grounded out to second, Happ scored.2–1
- 1Canario grounded out to third, N. Gonzales scored, Horwitz to second.2–0
- 1Horwitz singled to right, Cruz scored, N. Gonzales to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 58%
- ML PIT +130 / CHC -155
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.2 pts
- CHC: Elo 63.5%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- CHC -140
- PIT +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 2.9 – 3.6 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1467 | 1546 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | −12 | PIT: Mitch Keller: team allows 0.52 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Colin Rea: team allows 0.59 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +96 Elo | CHC 63.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 61.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 61.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.2 | Runs scored | 5.42nd of 30 |
| 11th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 3.910th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.7 | Margin | +1.52nd of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 28th of 3010–24 | Road vs home | 22–102nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 301512 | Opponent Elo | 149917th of 30 |
| 24th of 301467 | Elo rating | 15463rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 34–38 | 35–36 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 5–17 | 24–22 |
| Underdog | 29–21 | 11–14 |
| Overs–unders | 27–45 | 39–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 11–21 CHC in their last 32 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 32.