Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Oneil CruzBatting1-5, 1 RBI
- Paul SkenesPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Cubs- Seiya SuzukiBatting2-5
- Cade HortonPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 10Kiner-Falefa hit sacrifice fly to left, Frazier scored, Hayes to third.2–1
- 8Swanson grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Tucker scored, Crow-Armstrong out at second.1–1
- 8Cruz grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Davis scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 50%
- ML PIT -110 / CHC -110
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +12.8 pts
- CHC: Elo 62.8%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- CHC -100
- PIT -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.3 – 3.3 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1466 | 1547 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +16 | +8 | PIT: Paul Skenes: team allows 0.80 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Cade Horton: team allows 0.40 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +91 Elo | CHC 62.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.2 | Runs scored | 5.52nd of 30 |
| 12th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.011th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.8 | Margin | +1.52nd of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 28th of 309–23 | Road vs home | 21–93rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 301511 | Opponent Elo | 149917th of 30 |
| 24th of 301466 | Elo rating | 15474th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 32–38 | 35–34 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–17 | 24–20 |
| Underdog | 27–21 | 11–14 |
| Overs–unders | 27–43 | 39–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 10–20 CHC in their last 30 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 30.