Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Adam FrazierBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Andrew HeaneyPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Cubs- Pete Crow-ArmstrongBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jameson TaillonPitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Triolo walked, Frazier scored, Sullivan to second, Kiner-Falefa to third.2–3
- 7Frazier singled to left, Horwitz scored.1–3
- 6Suzuki homered to left (379 feet).0–3
- 4Crow-Armstrong homered to right center (393 feet), Tucker scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 64%
- ML PIT +170 / CHC -205
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.2 pts
- CHC: Elo 64.7%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- CHC -181
- PIT +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.1 – 4.4 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1467 | 1546 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +10 | PIT: Andrew Heaney: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Jameson Taillon: team allows 0.48 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +105 Elo | CHC 64.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 63.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 63.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.3 | Runs scored | 5.51st of 30 |
| 11th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.012th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.8 | Margin | +1.52nd of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 28th of 309–22 | Road vs home | 20–93rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 301510 | Opponent Elo | 149917th of 30 |
| 24th of 301467 | Elo rating | 15464th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 31–38 | 35–33 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–17 | 24–19 |
| Underdog | 26–21 | 11–14 |
| Overs–unders | 27–42 | 39–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 10–19 CHC in their last 29 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 29.