Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Andrew McCutchenBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Mike BurrowsPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Cubs- Dansby SwansonBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Matthew BoydPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 6Swanson homered to left center (377 feet).1–2
- 3Happ hit sacrifice fly to left, Hoerner scored.1–1
- 1McCutchen homered to left center (372 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 66%
- ML PIT +180 / CHC -215
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.5 pts
- CHC: Elo 64.1%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- CHC -191
- PIT +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.0 – 4.5 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1467 | 1545 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +4 | PIT: Mike Burrows: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · CHC: Matthew Boyd: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +101 Elo | CHC 64.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 65.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 65.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 65.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.2 | Runs scored | 5.42nd of 30 |
| 12th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.011th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.7 | Margin | +1.52nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 28th of 3010–23 | Road vs home | 21–103rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 301512 | Opponent Elo | 149917th of 30 |
| 24th of 301467 | Elo rating | 15454th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 33–38 | 35–35 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 5–17 | 24–21 |
| Underdog | 28–21 | 11–14 |
| Overs–unders | 27–44 | 39–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 11–20 CHC in their last 31 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 31.