Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Andrew McCutchenBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Andrew HeaneyPitching4.0 IP, 7 ER, 2 K
Tigers- Riley GreeneBatting2-4, 4 RBI
- Tarik SkubalPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 6Pham hit sacrifice fly to center, Canario scored, Triolo to second, Kiner-Falefa to third.2–9
- 5Keith hit sacrifice fly to center, Dingler scored, Báez to third.1–9
- 5McKinstry homered to right (379 feet).1–8
- 5McCutchen grounded out to second, Cook scored, N. Gonzales to third.1–7
- 4Torkelson hit sacrifice fly to right, Torres scored, Jones to third.0–7
- 4Torres doubled to left, Meadows scored.0–6
- 2Greene doubled to right, Báez scored, Jones scored and Meadows scored.0–5
- 2Torres hit sacrifice fly to center, Dingler scored.0–2
- 1Greene hit sacrifice fly to left, Torres scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 76.7% of 30 graded games.
- Market
- DET 75%
- ML PIT +285 / DET -365
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.9 pts
- DET: Elo 65.3%, market 75.1%
- Fair odds
- DET -302
- PIT +302 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 2.5 – 5.0 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1464 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +23 | PIT: Andrew Heaney: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Tarik Skubal: team allows 1.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +110 Elo | DET 65.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 72.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 71.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 75.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.2 | Runs scored | 4.85th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 3.76th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.8 | Margin | +1.13rd of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 28th of 3010–26 | Road vs home | 25–114th of 30 |
| 1st of 301513 | Opponent Elo | 149425th of 30 |
| 24th of 301464 | Elo rating | 15346th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 35–39 | 40–34 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–17 | 26–23 |
| Underdog | 30–22 | 14–11 |
| Overs–unders | 28–46 | 38–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 4–5 DET in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.