Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Nick GonzalesBatting3-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Paul SkenesPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Tigers- Colt KeithBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Keider MonteroPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 10Kiner-Falefa singled to left, N. Gonzales scored and Triolo scored, Cook to second.8–4
- 10Bart singled to left, Hayes scored, Triolo to second, N. Gonzales to third.6–4
- 10Hayes singled to right, Pham scored.5–4
- 7Keith homered to left (353 feet), Sweeney scored.4–4
- 5Torres doubled to center, Keith scored and Rogers scored.4–2
- 3McCutchen homered to left (382 feet).4–0
- 2Triolo homered to center (422 feet), Frazier scored.3–0
- 2N. Gonzales homered to left (395 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 53%
- ML PIT -130 / DET +100
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 43%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.4 pts
- PIT: Elo 42.7%, market 53.1%
- Fair odds
- PIT -113
- DET +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.9 – 3.6 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1462 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +17 | −24 | PIT: Paul Skenes: team allows 0.85 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Tyler Holton: team allows 1.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +51 Elo | DET 57.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 51.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 53.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.2 | Runs scored | 4.95th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 3.76th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.9 | Margin | +1.23rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 28th of 3010–27 | Road vs home | 26–112nd of 30 |
| 1st of 301514 | Opponent Elo | 149426th of 30 |
| 24th of 301462 | Elo rating | 15365th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 35–40 | 41–34 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–17 | 27–23 |
| Underdog | 30–23 | 14–11 |
| Overs–unders | 29–46 | 39–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 4–6 DET in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.