Detroit Tigers at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Wenceel PerezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Casey MizePitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Rays- Junior CamineroBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Zack LittellPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Walls singled to center, Mangum scored and Mead scored, Caballero to second.9–3
- 9McKinstry hit sacrifice fly to center, Báez scored.9–1
- 9Meadows homered to right center (392 feet), Pérez scored and Dingler scored.8–1
- 9Pérez singled to right, Torkelson scored.5–1
- 9Torkelson doubled to right, Greene scored.4–1
- 7Pérez homered to right center (359 feet), Torkelson scored.3–1
- 4Caminero homered to left (379 feet).1–1
- 2Dingler singled to right, Greene scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TB 50%
- ML DET -110 / TB -110
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.8 pts
- TB: Elo 53.8%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- TB -100
- DET -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.3 – 4.3 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +2 | DET: Casey Mize: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Zack Littell: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +26 Elo | TB 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 50.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.86th of 30 |
| 10th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 3.87th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.0 | Margin | +1.03rd of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 5th of 3022–18 | Road vs home | 27–2218th of 30 |
| 25th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 15036th of 30 |
| 9th of 301528 | Elo rating | 15308th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 41–37 | 41–36 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 27–23 | 17–26 |
| Underdog | 14–14 | 24–10 |
| Overs–unders | 42–36 | 32–45 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 6–8 TB in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 14.