Detroit Tigers at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Jahmai JonesBatting1-1, 1 RBI
- Sawyer Gipson-LongPitching6.1 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Rays- Junior CamineroBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ryan PepiotPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Dingler hit sacrifice fly to right, Báez scored.3–8
- 8Jones doubled to center, Pérez scored, Báez to third.2–8
- 7Morel homered to left (434 feet).1–8
- 4Caminero homered to center (408 feet).1–7
- 4Jansen homered to left (369 feet).1–6
- 4Rogers grounded out to shortstop, Báez scored.1–5
- 2B. Lowe singled to right, Díaz scored.0–5
- 1Walls singled to center, J. Lowe scored and Morel scored, Caballero to third.0–4
- 1Caballero hit by pitch, Aranda scored, J. Lowe to second, Morel to third.0–2
- 1J. Lowe walked, B. Lowe scored, Morel to second, Aranda to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TB 57%
- ML DET +120 / TB -145
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.8 pts
- TB: Elo 53.7%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- TB -130
- DET +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.0 – 4.5 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +9 | DET: Sawyer Gipson-Long: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · TB: Ryan Pepiot: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +26 Elo | TB 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 50.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.77th of 30 |
| 8th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 3.87th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.1 | Margin | +0.95th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 4th of 3022–17 | Road vs home | 26–2218th of 30 |
| 25th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 15027th of 30 |
| 8th of 301531 | Elo rating | 15289th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 41–36 | 40–36 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 27–23 | 16–26 |
| Underdog | 14–13 | 24–10 |
| Overs–unders | 41–36 | 31–45 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 6–7 TB in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 13.