Athletics at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Brent RookerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Luis SeverinoPitching5.0 IP, 7 ER, 2 K
Tigers- Dillon DinglerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Tarik SkubalPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Greene singled to right, Báez scored and Torres scored, Greene thrown out at second, Jones to third.4–11
- 7McKinstry singled to left, Pérez scored, Greene to third, McKinstry to third, Greene scored on error by catcher Wynns.4–9
- 3Dingler homered to left center (390 feet), Pérez scored and McKinstry scored.4–7
- 3Pérez doubled to right, Greene scored and Torres scored.4–4
- 2Clarke homered to center (422 feet), Soderstrom scored.4–2
- 1Carpenter homered to right center (417 feet), Keith scored.2–2
- 1Rooker homered to left (415 feet), Wilson scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- DET 74%
- ML ATH +265 / DET -335
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.4 pts
- DET: Elo 70.4%, market 73.8%
- Fair odds
- DET -281
- ATH +281 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 2.6 – 4.9 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1437 | 1531 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | +25 | ATH: Luis Severino: team allows 0.66 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Tarik Skubal: team allows 1.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +150 Elo | DET 70.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 73.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 73.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 73.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.95th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.8 | Runs allowed | 3.99th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.6 | Margin | +1.03rd of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 19th of 3017–21 | Road vs home | 26–122nd of 30 |
| 24th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149525th of 30 |
| 28th of 301437 | Elo rating | 15317th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 39–41 | 42–37 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–13 | 27–23 |
| Underdog | 32–28 | 15–14 |
| Overs–unders | 46–34 | 43–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 9–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 7–6 DET in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 13.
