Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Byron BuxtonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- David FestaPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Tigers- Gleyber TorresBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Sawyer Gipson-LongPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Torres singled to center, Keith scored.4–1
- 7Castro hit sacrifice bunt to pitcher, Buxton scored.4–0
- 6Lee singled to center, Castro scored, France to third.3–0
- 5Buxton homered to left (425 feet).2–0
- 4Lee doubled to right, Wallner scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- DET 57%
- ML MIN +120 / DET -145
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.3 pts
- DET: Elo 57.8%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- DET -130
- MIN +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.0 – 4.5 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −8 | MIN: David Festa: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · DET: Sawyer Gipson-Long: team allows 0.39 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +55 Elo | DET 57.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.05th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.97th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +1.13rd of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 24th of 3017–25 | Road vs home | 28–133rd of 30 |
| 20th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149229th of 30 |
| 21st of 301495 | Elo rating | 15336th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 45–36 | 44–38 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 25–22 | 29–24 |
| Underdog | 20–13 | 15–14 |
| Overs–unders | 39–42 | 44–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 13–16 DET in their last 29 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 29.