Milwaukee Brewers at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Brice TurangBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Quinn PriesterPitching3.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Twins- Byron BuxtonBatting3-5, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- David FestaPitching4.2 IP, 8 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8France homered to left (392 feet), Wallner scored.9–8
- 7Jeffers grounded out to second, Lee scored, Bride to second, Correa to third.9–6
- 7Correa singled to left, France scored, Lee to second.9–5
- 6Buxton homered to left (382 feet).9–4
- 5Frelick singled to center, Durbin scored, Ortiz to second.9–3
- 5Turang homered to right center (412 feet), Collins scored and Hoskins scored.8–3
- 4Jeffers homered to left (386 feet).5–3
- 4Durbin scored on Festa wild pitch, Ortiz to second on wild pitch by Festa.5–2
- 4Durbin scored on Festa wild pitch, Ortiz to second on wild pitch by Festa.5–2
- 3Hoskins hit sacrifice fly to left, Chourio scored.4–2
- 3Yelich singled to left, Frelick scored, Chourio to third.3–2
- 2Hoskins homered to left (368 feet).2–2
- 1Lee singled to left, Larnach scored, France to second.1–2
- 1Buxton homered to left center (411 feet).1–1
- 1Contreras singled to center, Yelich scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 55%
- ML MIL +115 / MIN -135
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.1 pts
- MIN: Elo 47.1%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- MIN -124
- MIL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.5 – 5.0 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | 0 | MIL: Quinn Priester: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIN: Danny Coulombe (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +20 Elo | MIL 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 54.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.218th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.318th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.119th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 9th of 3019–20 | Road vs home | 20–1415th of 30 |
| 10th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149723rd of 30 |
| 5th of 301535 | Elo rating | 149520th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 39–38 | 43–33 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 16–21 | 23–20 |
| Underdog | 23–17 | 20–12 |
| Overs–unders | 30–47 | 35–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 8–5 MIN in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 13.