Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Isaac CollinsBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Freddy PeraltaPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Cubs- Ian HappBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jameson TaillonPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Hoerner reached on infield single to shortstop, Swanson scored, Berti to second.8–7
- 8Kelly grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Crow-Armstrong scored, Bruján out at second, Swanson to third.8–6
- 7Happ homered to center (416 feet), Hoerner scored.8–5
- 5Collins homered to left center (388 feet), Contreras scored and Turang scored.8–3
- 4Swanson homered to left center (406 feet).5–3
- 3Contreras singled to center, Chourio scored, Yelich to second.5–2
- 2Durbin homered to center (395 feet), Collins scored.4–2
- 2Hoskins homered to left (394 feet).2–2
- 1Crow-Armstrong homered to right (377 feet), Tucker scored.1–2
- 1Yelich singled to right, Chourio scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 54%
- ML MIL +110 / CHC -130
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.7 pts
- CHC: Elo 55.9%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- CHC -119
- MIL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.1 – 4.4 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1548 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +11 | MIL: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.48 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Jameson Taillon: team allows 0.57 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +41 Elo | CHC 55.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 52.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.32nd of 30 |
| 13th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 3.99th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +1.51st of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 20th of 3016–20 | Road vs home | 24–102nd of 30 |
| 11th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149721st of 30 |
| 9th of 301527 | Elo rating | 15483rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 36–38 | 36–37 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 16–21 | 25–23 |
| Underdog | 20–17 | 11–14 |
| Overs–unders | 28–46 | 39–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 16–14 CHC in their last 30 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 30.