Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Isaac CollinsBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Chad PatrickPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Cubs- Seiya SuzukiBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Ben BrownPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Crow-Armstrong homered to right (452 feet).3–5
- 6Ortiz singled to left, Turang scored.3–4
- 5Suzuki homered to left center (413 feet), Happ scored and Tucker scored.2–4
- 2Shaw doubled to center, Hoerner scored.2–1
- 2Collins homered to right (388 feet), Hoskins scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 58%
- ML MIL +130 / CHC -155
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.1 pts
- CHC: Elo 54.2%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- CHC -140
- MIL +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.4 – 5.1 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1547 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −12 | MIL: Chad Patrick: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · CHC: Ben Brown: team allows 0.58 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +29 Elo | CHC 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 59.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 58.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.32nd of 30 |
| 13th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 3.910th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +1.51st of 30 |
| 16th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 30 |
| 14th of 3016–19 | Road vs home | 23–102nd of 30 |
| 12th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149818th of 30 |
| 8th of 301528 | Elo rating | 15473rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 36–37 | 35–37 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 16–21 | 24–23 |
| Underdog | 20–16 | 11–14 |
| Overs–unders | 28–45 | 39–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 16–13 CHC in their last 29 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 29.