Milwaukee Brewers at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Christian YelichBatting4-6, 8 RBI
- Jacob MisiorowskiPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Twins- Matt WallnerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Joe RyanPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Clemens hit sacrifice fly to left, France scored.17–6
- 9Lee singled to left, Keirsey Jr. scored.17–5
- 9France doubled to center, Bride scored and Castro scored, Keirsey Jr. to third.17–4
- 9Yelich singled to right, Chourio scored.17–2
- 9Chourio doubled to second, Ortiz scored and Durbin scored.16–2
- 9Frelick hit sacrifice fly to right, Bauers scored.14–2
- 9Ortiz singled to right, Monasterio scored, Durbin to second, Bauers to third.13–2
- 8Yelich doubled to center, Durbin scored, Frelick scored and Ortiz scored.12–2
- 8Ortiz singled to center, Monasterio scored, Durbin to second.9–2
- 7Wallner homered to right (372 feet), Buxton scored.8–2
- 7Yelich doubled to left, Chourio scored, Ortiz scored and Frelick scored.8–0
- 7Frelick singled to center, Durbin scored, Ortiz to third.5–0
- 7Ortiz singled to left, Collins scored, Durbin to second.4–0
- 6Yelich singled to left, Chourio scored.3–0
- 6Chourio doubled to center, Frelick scored, Chourio to third.2–0
- 4Contreras hit sacrifice fly to left, Chourio scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 59%
- ML MIL +135 / MIN -160
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.5 pts
- MIN: Elo 49.6%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- MIN -145
- MIL +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 3.3 – 4.2 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +12 | MIL: Jacob Misiorowski: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · MIN: Joe Ryan: team allows 0.62 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +2 Elo | MIL 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 57.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 56.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.217th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.114th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.117th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 17th of 3017–20 | Road vs home | 20–129th of 30 |
| 9th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149723rd of 30 |
| 8th of 301528 | Elo rating | 150219th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 37–38 | 43–31 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 16–21 | 23–18 |
| Underdog | 21–17 | 20–12 |
| Overs–unders | 29–46 | 34–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 6–5 MIN in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 11.