Milwaukee Brewers at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Isaac CollinsBatting2-4, 3 RBI
- Jose QuintanaPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Twins- Byron BuxtonBatting1-3
- Simeon Woods RichardsonPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Collins doubled to right, Hoskins scored and Turang scored.9–0
- 8Frelick doubled to center, Ortiz scored.7–0
- 8Durbin grounded out to shortstop, Collins scored.6–0
- 8Collins hit sacrifice fly, Turang scored, Collins to first on fielding error by left fielder Bader, Collins to third.5–0
- 2Yelich reached on infield single to third, Durbin scored, Ortiz to second.4–0
- 2Chourio hit sacrifice fly to right, Collins scored, Durbin to third.3–0
- 1Turang hit sacrifice fly to left, Yelich scored.2–0
- 1Frelick scored on throwing error by catcher Jeffers, Yelich stole third.1–0
- 1Frelick scored on throwing error by catcher Jeffers, Yelich stole third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 55%
- ML MIL +115 / MIN -135
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.6 pts
- MIN: Elo 46.7%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- MIN -124
- MIL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 5.0 – 5.5 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1532 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −6 | MIL: Jose Quintana: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Simeon Woods Richardson: team allows 0.31 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +23 Elo | MIL 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.316th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.318th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.4 | Margin | 0.018th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 13th of 3018–20 | Road vs home | 20–1311th of 30 |
| 8th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149722nd of 30 |
| 7th of 301532 | Elo rating | 149819th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 38–38 | 43–32 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 16–21 | 23–19 |
| Underdog | 22–17 | 20–12 |
| Overs–unders | 30–46 | 35–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 7–5 MIN in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 12.