Seattle Mariners at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Julio RodriguezBatting1-3
- George KirbyPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Twins- Kody ClemensBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Joe RyanPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 7Clemens homered to left center (389 feet).0–2
- 6Castro singled to right, Buxton scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 52%
- ML SEA +100 / MIN -120
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.7 pts
- MIN: Elo 48.4%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- MIN -109
- SEA +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.7 – 3.8 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −4 | SEA: George Kirby: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Joe Ryan: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +11 Elo | SEA 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 53.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.215th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.521st of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.320th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 4th of 3021–18 | Road vs home | 20–1718th of 30 |
| 28th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 149919th of 30 |
| 13th of 301517 | Elo rating | 148922nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 34–44 | 43–36 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 14–33 | 23–22 |
| Underdog | 20–11 | 20–13 |
| Overs–unders | 44–34 | 38–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 10–9 MIN in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 19.