Seattle Mariners at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Donovan SolanoBatting3-5, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Logan GilbertPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Cubs- Seiya SuzukiBatting2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Colin ReaPitching5.1 IP, 7 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Solano singled to center, Young scored and Arozarena scored.14–6
- 8Arozarena doubled to left, Rodríguez scored and Raleigh scored, Young to third.12–6
- 8Young singled to left, Mastrobuoni scored, Raleigh to second, Rodríguez to third.10–6
- 7Tucker homered to center (422 feet), Turner scored.9–6
- 7Solano homered to left (416 feet), Garver scored.9–4
- 6Rodríguez grounded out to shortstop, Mastrobuoni scored, Crawford to third.7–4
- 6Canzone homered to right (397 feet).6–4
- 5Suzuki homered to left (398 feet), Tucker scored.5–4
- 5McGuire homered to center (432 feet).5–2
- 5Arozarena singled to right, Raleigh scored on error, Arozarena safe at second on fielding error by right fielder Suzuki.5–1
- 4Solano homered to left center (391 feet).4–1
- 2Canzone homered to left center (394 feet).3–1
- 1Suzuki homered to left (389 feet).2–1
- 1Raleigh homered to center (440 feet), Crawford scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 53%
- ML SEA -125 / CHC +105
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.0 pts
- SEA: Elo 44.3%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- SEA -114
- CHC +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 5.9 – 5.6 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1545 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −9 | SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Colin Rea: team allows 0.44 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +40 Elo | CHC 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 5.42nd of 30 |
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.012th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +1.42nd of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 6th of 3018–18 | Road vs home | 25–123rd of 30 |
| 27th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 149917th of 30 |
| 15th of 301509 | Elo rating | 15453rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 31–44 | 37–39 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 12–33 | 26–25 |
| Underdog | 19–11 | 11–14 |
| Overs–unders | 41–34 | 42–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 3–5 CHC in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.