Seattle Mariners at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Cal RaleighBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Emerson HancockPitching4.0 IP, 9 ER, 5 K
Cubs- Ian HappBatting2-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Cade HortonPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Raleigh homered to left center (363 feet).7–10
- 5Crow-Armstrong homered to right (382 feet).6–10
- 5Solano singled to right, Arozarena scored, Raley to second.6–9
- 5Raley singled to right, Polanco scored, Arozarena to third.5–9
- 5Crawford scored, Arozarena safe at second on throwing error by third baseman Bruján, Polanco safe at third.4–9
- 4Young hit sacrifice fly to center, Raley scored.3–9
- 4Solano singled to right, Polanco scored, Raley to third.2–9
- 3Busch homered to right (375 feet), Crow-Armstrong scored and Swanson scored.1–9
- 2Happ homered to center (434 feet), Kelly scored and Bruján scored.1–6
- 2Hoerner grounded out to shortstop, Busch scored.1–3
- 2Raley singled to left, Polanco scored, Arozarena to third.1–2
- 1Tucker homered to right center (402 feet).0–2
- 1Happ homered to left center (377 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 61%
- ML SEA +145 / CHC -175
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.1 pts
- CHC: Elo 59.8%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- CHC -156
- SEA +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 5.8 – 6.7 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 12.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1544 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +10 | SEA: Emerson Hancock: team allows 0.40 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CHC: Cade Horton: team allows 0.49 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +69 Elo | CHC 59.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 58.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 58.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 5.32nd of 30 |
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.011th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +1.32nd of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 6th of 3018–17 | Road vs home | 24–125th of 30 |
| 29th of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 149818th of 30 |
| 15th of 301510 | Elo rating | 15443rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 31–43 | 36–39 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 12–33 | 25–25 |
| Underdog | 19–10 | 11–14 |
| Overs–unders | 40–34 | 41–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 3–4 CHC in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.