Seattle Mariners at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Mitch GarverBatting2-4, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- George KirbyPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Cubs- Ian HappBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Matthew BoydPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Garver homered to center (394 feet), Raleigh scored and Arozarena scored.9–4
- 7Raleigh homered to left (419 feet), Rodríguez scored.6–4
- 6Garver homered to left center (414 feet), Arozarena scored.4–4
- 5McGuire homered to right center (399 feet).2–4
- 4Solano singled to right, Raleigh scored, Garver to third.2–3
- 1Busch singled to left, Tucker scored and Suzuki scored.1–3
- 1Happ homered to center (425 feet).1–1
- 1Raleigh homered to center (381 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 57%
- ML SEA +120 / CHC -145
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.0 pts
- CHC: Elo 59.6%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- CHC -130
- SEA +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 5.0 – 5.5 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1547 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +8 | SEA: George Kirby: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Matthew Boyd: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +67 Elo | CHC 59.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 55.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 56.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.42nd of 30 |
| 19th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.910th of 30 |
| 18th of 300.0 | Margin | +1.41st of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 6th of 3017–17 | Road vs home | 24–112nd of 30 |
| 29th of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 149820th of 30 |
| 15th of 301507 | Elo rating | 15473rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 30–43 | 36–38 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 12–33 | 25–24 |
| Underdog | 18–10 | 11–14 |
| Overs–unders | 39–34 | 40–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 2–4 CHC in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.