Seattle Mariners at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Julio RodriguezBatting2-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Bryan WooPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Twins- Trevor LarnachBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bailey OberPitching7.0 IP, 7 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Raleigh homered to left (379 feet), Rodríguez scored.11–2
- 9Rodríguez doubled to left, Canzone scored and Williamson scored.9–2
- 6Correa homered to left center (411 feet).7–2
- 6Larnach homered to right center (404 feet).7–1
- 6Canzone homered to right center (407 feet).7–0
- 3Raley homered to center (436 feet), Raleigh scored and Arozarena scored.6–0
- 3Rodríguez homered to left center (442 feet), Young scored.3–0
- 3Crawford hit sacrifice fly to center, Williamson scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 55%
- ML SEA -135 / MIN +115
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- SEA: Elo 52.4%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- SEA -124
- MIN +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.5 – 4.0 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −8 | SEA: Bryan Woo: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Bailey Ober: team allows 0.41 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +17 Elo | SEA 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 52.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.316th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.418th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.119th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 1–929th of 30 |
| 6th of 3019–18 | Road vs home | 20–1515th of 30 |
| 27th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 149822nd of 30 |
| 14th of 301513 | Elo rating | 149420th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 32–44 | 43–34 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 13–33 | 23–21 |
| Underdog | 19–11 | 20–12 |
| Overs–unders | 42–34 | 36–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 8–9 MIN in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 17.