Seattle Mariners at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Donovan SolanoBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Luis CastilloPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Twins- Kody ClemensBatting1-1, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Chris PaddackPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Rodríguez hit sacrifice fly to right, Moore scored, Young to third.6–5
- 4Jeffers doubled to left, Clemens scored and Correa scored.5–5
- 4France grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Lee scored, Wallner out at second, Correa to third.5–3
- 4Lee singled to left, Larnach scored.5–2
- 3Clemens homered to right (353 feet).5–1
- 3Solano singled to center, Arozarena scored and Raleigh scored, Raley to second.5–0
- 3Raley hit by pitch, Crawford scored, Arozarena to second, Raleigh to third.3–0
- 3Raleigh singled to right, Young scored, Crawford to second.2–0
- 3Rodríguez hit sacrifice fly to right, Williamson scored, Young to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 51%
- ML SEA -105 / MIN -115
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.1 pts
- MIN: Elo 47.0%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- MIN -104
- SEA +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.2 – 4.3 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −6 | SEA: Luis Castillo: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Chris Paddack: team allows 0.28 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +21 Elo | SEA 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.219th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.520th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.220th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 1–929th of 30 |
| 6th of 3020–18 | Road vs home | 20–1617th of 30 |
| 27th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 149821st of 30 |
| 14th of 301516 | Elo rating | 149022nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 33–44 | 43–35 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 14–33 | 23–21 |
| Underdog | 19–11 | 20–13 |
| Overs–unders | 43–34 | 37–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 9–9 MIN in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 18.