Seattle Mariners at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Miles MastrobuoniBatting1-1, 1 RBI
- Emerson HancockPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Twins- Trevor LarnachBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Simeon Woods RichardsonPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Mastrobuoni reached on infield single to shortstop, Canzone scored, Solano to third.1–10
- 6Wallner homered to center (420 feet), Correa scored.0–10
- 6Correa singled to left, Larnach scored and Castro scored.0–8
- 6Castro doubled to left, Buxton scored, Larnach to third.0–6
- 6Clemens scored on error, Larnach safe at first on throwing error by third baseman Williamson, Buxton safe at third on error.0–5
- 6Buxton doubled to left, Jeffers scored, Clemens to third.0–4
- 6Lee homered to right (387 feet).0–3
- 5Larnach homered to right center (421 feet), Buxton scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 54%
- ML SEA +110 / MIN -130
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.2 pts
- MIN: Elo 50.1%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- MIN -119
- SEA +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.1 – 4.4 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −16 | −9 | SEA: Emerson Hancock: team allows 0.79 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIN: Simeon Woods Richardson: team allows 0.46 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +1 Elo | MIN 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 55.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 54.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.218th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.419th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.220th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 5th of 3021–19 | Road vs home | 21–1717th of 30 |
| 26th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 149920th of 30 |
| 13th of 301515 | Elo rating | 149121st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 34–45 | 44–36 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 14–33 | 24–22 |
| Underdog | 20–12 | 20–13 |
| Overs–unders | 44–35 | 38–42 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 10–10 MIN in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 20.