Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- CJ AbramsBatting2-6, 3 RBI
- Mitchell ParkerPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Angels- Taylor WardBatting3-5, 1 RBI
- Jack KochanowiczPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 11Abrams tripled to right, Lile scored and Millas scored.7–4
- 11Millas doubled to left, House scored, Lile to third.5–4
- 9Young singled to left, Lile scored.4–4
- 7Rengifo scored on Ferrer wild pitch.3–4
- 7Rengifo scored on Ferrer wild pitch.3–4
- 7Abrams doubled to second, Young scored.3–3
- 6Moore singled to left, Adell scored.2–3
- 6Adell singled to right, Ward scored.2–2
- 5García Jr. grounded out to first, Millas scored, Wood to second, Young out at home on runner's fielder's choice.2–1
- 4House doubled to right, Lowe scored, Bell to third.1–1
- 1Ward doubled to right, Schanuel scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Angels 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAA 53%
- ML WSH +105 / LAA -125
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.9 pts
- LAA: Elo 54.1%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- LAA -114
- WSH +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.6 – 4.9 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1457 | 1460 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +2 | WSH: Mitchell Parker: team allows 0.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Jack Kochanowicz: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +29 Elo | LAA 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAA 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.315th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.924th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.9 | Margin | −0.623rd of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3018–25 | Road vs home | 20–1920th of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 30 |
| 27th of 301457 | Elo rating | 146025th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 43–40 | 42–40 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 1–16 | 7–15 |
| Underdog | 42–24 | 35–25 |
| Overs–unders | 40–43 | 44–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 4–4 LAA in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.