Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Byron BuxtonBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bailey OberPitching5.2 IP, 7 ER, 5 K
Tigers- Zach McKinstryBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Casey MizePitching6.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Wallner hit sacrifice fly to center, Lee scored.5–10
- 8Pérez doubled to right, Torres scored and Greene scored, Torkelson to third.4–10
- 8Correa homered to left center (431 feet), Buxton scored.4–8
- 7McKinstry hit sacrifice fly to left, Pérez scored.2–8
- 6McKinstry homered to right (374 feet).2–7
- 5Greene homered to right (415 feet).2–6
- 4Torres homered to center (406 feet), McKinstry scored.2–5
- 4Keith hit sacrifice fly to left, Vierling scored, McKinstry to third.2–3
- 3Carpenter homered to right (424 feet).2–2
- 3Buxton homered to left center (402 feet), Bader scored.2–1
- 2Vierling hit sacrifice fly to left, Torkelson scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- DET 59%
- ML MIN +135 / DET -160
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.2 pts
- DET: Elo 58.9%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- DET -145
- MIN +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.3 – 5.2 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | −1 | MIN: Bailey Ober: team allows 0.61 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Casey Mize: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +62 Elo | DET 58.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 54.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 55.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.05th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.97th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +1.13rd of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3018–25 | Road vs home | 28–144th of 30 |
| 19th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149229th of 30 |
| 18th of 301497 | Elo rating | 15308th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 46–36 | 44–39 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 25–22 | 29–25 |
| Underdog | 21–13 | 15–14 |
| Overs–unders | 39–43 | 44–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 14–16 DET in their last 30 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 30.