Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Ty FranceBatting1-3
- Chris PaddackPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Tigers- Kerry CarpenterBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tarik SkubalPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 13 K
Scoring summary
- 5Carpenter tripled to right, Keith scored.0–3
- 4Greene homered to right center (381 feet).0–2
- 1Carpenter homered to right center (399 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- DET 70%
- ML MIN +220 / DET -270
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.4 pts
- DET: Elo 61.7%, market 70.0%
- Fair odds
- DET -234
- MIN +234 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 2.8 – 4.7 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1532 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +24 | MIN: Chris Paddack: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Tarik Skubal: team allows 1.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +83 Elo | DET 61.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 67.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 66.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 70.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.05th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.96th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +1.13rd of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 24th of 3018–26 | Road vs home | 29–144th of 30 |
| 19th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149330th of 30 |
| 19th of 301495 | Elo rating | 15327th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 46–37 | 45–39 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 25–22 | 30–25 |
| Underdog | 21–14 | 15–14 |
| Overs–unders | 40–43 | 45–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 14–17 DET in their last 31 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 31.