Detroit Tigers at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Spencer TorkelsonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Dietrich EnnsPitching4.0 IP, 7 ER, 3 K
Nationals- James WoodBatting5-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jake IrvinPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Call singled to center, García Jr. scored.7–11
- 8García Jr. singled to right, Wood scored.7–10
- 8Báez grounded out to shortstop, Dingler scored, Meadows to second.7–9
- 8Meadows singled to left, McKinstry scored, Dingler to third.6–9
- 7Pérez singled to center, Keith scored, Torres to second.5–9
- 7Torres singled to center, Meadows scored, Keith to second.4–9
- 5House singled to center, Lowe scored and Call scored.3–9
- 4Wood singled to center, Abrams scored, Wood out stretching at second.3–7
- 2Wood homered to left (361 feet).3–6
- 1DeJong homered to right center (387 feet), Lowe scored and Call scored.3–5
- 1Call singled to left, Abrams scored and Wood scored, Lowe to second.3–2
- 1Torkelson homered to center (428 feet), Keith scored and Torres scored.3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- DET 55%
- ML DET -135 / WSH +115
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.0 pts
- DET: Elo 60.3%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- DET -124
- WSH +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 5.0 – 4.5 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1534 | 1459 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | −4 | DET: Dietrich Enns: team allows 0.59 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · WSH: Jake Irvin: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +73 Elo | DET 60.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 58.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 58.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.414th of 30 |
| 6th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 5.228th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.2 | Margin | −0.826th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3024–19 | Road vs home | 17–2528th of 30 |
| 30th of 301491 | Opponent Elo | 150112th of 30 |
| 7th of 301534 | Elo rating | 145926th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 47–40 | 45–41 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 32–25 | 2–16 |
| Underdog | 15–15 | 43–25 |
| Overs–unders | 47–40 | 43–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 3–5 WSH in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.