Detroit Tigers at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Jahmai JonesBatting2-3, 2 RBI
- Jack FlahertyPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 9 K
Nationals- Nathaniel LoweBatting2-4, 4 RBI
- MacKenzie GorePitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Young grounded out to second, DeJong scored, Adams to second.4–9
- 8DeJong singled to left, Call scored.4–8
- 8Bell doubled to center, Lowe scored.4–7
- 8Lowe tripled to right, Abrams scored, Wood scored and García Jr. scored.4–6
- 7Jones doubled to center, Torres scored and Báez scored.4–3
- 6Keith doubled to center, Torkelson scored, Vierling thrown out at home.2–3
- 4Torkelson doubled to center, Jones scored.1–3
- 3Bell singled to left, Wood scored.0–3
- 1Bell singled to left, García Jr. scored, Lowe to second.0–2
- 1Lowe singled to right, Wood scored, García Jr. to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nationals 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 50%
- ML DET -110 / WSH -110
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.5 pts
- WSH: Elo 45.5%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- WSH -100
- DET -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.3 – 4.3 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1456 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −17 | +14 | DET: Jack Flaherty: team allows 0.87 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.69 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +32 Elo | DET 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.314th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 5.228th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.3 | Margin | −0.926th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3024–18 | Road vs home | 16–2528th of 30 |
| 30th of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 150016th of 30 |
| 6th of 301537 | Elo rating | 145627th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 47–39 | 44–41 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 32–25 | 1–16 |
| Underdog | 15–14 | 43–25 |
| Overs–unders | 46–40 | 42–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 3–4 WSH in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.