Cincinnati Reds at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Christian Encarnacion-StrandBatting2-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Nick MartinezPitching6.2 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Red Sox- Wilyer AbreuBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Chris MurphyPitching2.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Friedl grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Encarnacion-Strand scored and Lux scored on fielding error by shortstop Story, Friedl second, Espinal third.8–4
- 8Espinal singled to right, Hinds scored, Encarnacion-Strand to second, Lux to third.6–4
- 7González doubled to left, Mayer scored, González out stretching at third.5–4
- 7De La Cruz singled to center, Friedl scored.5–3
- 7Encarnacion-Strand homered to center (439 feet), Stephenson scored, Hinds scored and Lux scored.4–3
- 6Abreu homered to right (388 feet), Story scored.0–3
- 2González hit sacrifice fly to right, Rafaela scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 54%
- ML CIN +110 / BOS -130
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.4 pts
- BOS: Elo 51.8%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- BOS -119
- CIN +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.6 – 4.9 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −9 | CIN: Nick Martinez: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Brennan Bernardino: team allows 0.44 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +13 Elo | BOS 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.86th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.623rd of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.214th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 16th of 3020–23 | Road vs home | 25–1913th of 30 |
| 12th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149918th of 30 |
| 16th of 301503 | Elo rating | 150118th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 46–40 | 44–43 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 14–25 | 19–30 |
| Underdog | 31–15 | 25–13 |
| Overs–unders | 37–49 | 41–46 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 3–5 BOS in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.