Boston Red Sox at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Trevor StoryBatting4-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Lucas GiolitoPitching7.2 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Nationals- Daylen LileBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Michael SorokaPitching4.0 IP, 7 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Lile doubled to center, House scored.11–2
- 8Story homered to left (363 feet), Abreu scored.11–1
- 6García Jr. hit sacrifice fly to center, Abrams scored.9–1
- 5Toro singled to center, Duran scored, Anthony to third.9–0
- 5Duran doubled to right, Mayer scored and Story scored.8–0
- 5Mayer singled to left, Abreu scored, Story to second.6–0
- 5Story singled to center, Narváez scored and Toro scored, Abreu to third.5–0
- 5Abreu walked, Anthony scored, Narváez to second, Toro to third.3–0
- 2Duran singled to center, Rafaela scored.2–0
- 2Rafaela doubled to right, Story scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 52%
- ML BOS -120 / WSH +100
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.0 pts
- BOS: Elo 55.2%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- BOS -109
- WSH +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.3 – 4.2 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1462 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −18 | BOS: Lucas Giolito: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: Michael Soroka: team allows 0.91 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +36 Elo | BOS 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 50.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 50.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.514th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 5.228th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.825th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3018–25 | Road vs home | 18–2528th of 30 |
| 18th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 150112th of 30 |
| 18th of 301499 | Elo rating | 146226th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 44–44 | 46–41 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 19–31 | 2–16 |
| Underdog | 25–13 | 44–25 |
| Overs–unders | 42–46 | 44–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 3–3 WSH in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.