St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Brendan DonovanBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Miles MikolasPitching6.0 IP, 8 ER, 4 K
Cubs- Michael BuschBatting4-4, 3 HR, 5 RBI
- Colin ReaPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Pagés walked, Nootbaar scored, Gorman to second, Saggese to third.3–11
- 9Nootbaar singled to right, Hampson scored, Burleson to third.2–11
- 7Busch homered to left center (369 feet).1–11
- 7Swanson homered to center (423 feet), Crow-Armstrong scored.1–10
- 5Busch singled to center, Crow-Armstrong scored.1–8
- 4Donovan homered to left center (365 feet).1–7
- 3Busch homered to right (428 feet), Swanson scored.0–7
- 3Crow-Armstrong homered to right (414 feet).0–5
- 2Kelly homered to left center (397 feet).0–4
- 2Busch homered to right center (408 feet).0–3
- 1Crow-Armstrong homered to right center (397 feet).0–2
- 1Suzuki homered to left center (413 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 57%
- ML STL +125 / CHC -150
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.1 pts
- CHC: Elo 56.3%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- CHC -135
- STL +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.4 – 5.1 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1546 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −16 | STL: Miles Mikolas: team allows 0.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Colin Rea: team allows 0.82 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +44 Elo | CHC 56.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 56.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 56.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 5.32nd of 30 |
| 15th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.114th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +1.31st of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 17th of 3021–24 | Road vs home | 28–134th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 15039th of 30 |
| 15th of 301509 | Elo rating | 15462nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 47–41 | 42–45 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 17–25 | 29–28 |
| Underdog | 30–16 | 13–17 |
| Overs–unders | 45–43 | 48–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 14–16 CHC in their last 30 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 30.