Cleveland Guardians at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Steven KwanBatting2-4
- Joey CantilloPitching3.1 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Cubs- Dansby SwansonBatting2-4
- Cade HortonPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 10Shaw hit sacrifice fly to center, Hoerner scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 55%
- ML CLE +115 / CHC -135
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.4 pts
- CHC: Elo 59.6%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- CHC -124
- CLE +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.0 – 4.5 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1545 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −3 | CLE: Joey Cantillo: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · CHC: Cade Horton: team allows 0.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +68 Elo | CHC 59.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 58.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 59.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 5.42nd of 30 |
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.114th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +1.31st of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 18th of 3020–24 | Road vs home | 27–135th of 30 |
| 9th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 15037th of 30 |
| 21st of 301488 | Elo rating | 15452nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 38–46 | 42–44 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 11–23 | 29–27 |
| Underdog | 27–23 | 13–17 |
| Overs–unders | 37–47 | 48–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 5–3 CHC in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.