St. Louis Cardinals at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Nolan GormanBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Matthew LiberatorePitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Guardians- Carlos SantanaBatting1-3
- Logan AllenPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Hampson singled to center, Gorman scored.7–0
- 8Pagés hit sacrifice fly to center, Fermín scored on error, Gorman safe at third on throwing error by center fielder Thomas.6–0
- 7Scott II homered to right (401 feet), Pagés scored.5–0
- 1Gorman homered to right center (428 feet), Winn scored and Contreras scored.3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- STL 52%
- ML STL -120 / CLE +100
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- STL: Elo 50.9%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- STL -109
- CLE +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.3 – 4.2 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −9 | STL: Matthew Liberatore: team allows 0.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Logan Allen: team allows 0.45 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +6 Elo | STL 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 53.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 53.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 3.725th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.216th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.522nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 11th of 3020–21 | Road vs home | 20–1919th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 150113th of 30 |
| 13th of 301513 | Elo rating | 149421st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 45–39 | 37–44 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 17–24 | 11–22 |
| Underdog | 28–15 | 26–22 |
| Overs–unders | 45–39 | 36–45 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 5–3 CLE in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.