Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Seiya SuzukiBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jameson TaillonPitching4.0 IP, 8 ER, 3 K
Cardinals- Masyn WinnBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Michael McGreevyPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 6Hoerner homered to left (364 feet), Swanson scored.7–8
- 4Burleson hit sacrifice fly to center, Winn scored.5–8
- 4Winn doubled to left, Scott II scored and Pagés scored.5–7
- 4Gorman homered to center (432 feet).5–5
- 3Winn homered to left center (383 feet), Donovan scored.5–4
- 3Suzuki homered to left center (404 feet), Happ scored and Tucker scored.5–2
- 3Tucker singled to center, Hoerner scored and Shaw scored, Happ to third.2–2
- 2Nootbaar homered to right center (412 feet), Contreras scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 51%
- ML CHC -115 / STL -105
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.4 pts
- CHC: Elo 51.4%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- CHC -104
- STL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.3 – 4.2 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1539 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +3 | CHC: Jameson Taillon: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Michael McGreevy: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +10 Elo | CHC 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.4 | Runs scored | 4.77th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.217th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.2 | Margin | +0.511th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 3021–17 | Road vs home | 25–158th of 30 |
| 18th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15053rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 301539 | Elo rating | 151315th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 37–41 | 43–36 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 26–26 | 16–23 |
| Underdog | 11–15 | 27–13 |
| Overs–unders | 44–34 | 43–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 14–13 STL in their last 27 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 27.