Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Carson KellyBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Ben BrownPitching5.0 IP, 8 ER, 3 K
Cardinals- Brendan DonovanBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Matthew LiberatorePitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Turner hit sacrifice fly to center, Crow-Armstrong scored.2–8
- 6Gorman homered to center (415 feet), Arenado scored.1–8
- 5Burleson homered to right (386 feet), Winn scored.1–6
- 5Donovan homered to right (393 feet), Pagés scored.1–4
- 5Kelly singled to center, Crow-Armstrong scored.1–2
- 4Nootbaar homered to right (396 feet), Contreras scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 53%
- ML CHC -125 / STL +105
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.5 pts
- CHC: Elo 51.8%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- CHC -114
- STL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.4 – 4.1 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1542 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | −8 | CHC: Ben Brown: team allows 0.49 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · STL: Matthew Liberatore: team allows 0.40 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +12 Elo | CHC 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 52.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.4 | Runs scored | 4.79th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.317th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.2 | Margin | +0.412th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3021–16 | Road vs home | 24–159th of 30 |
| 17th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15054th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301542 | Elo rating | 151015th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 37–40 | 42–36 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 26–25 | 16–23 |
| Underdog | 11–15 | 26–13 |
| Overs–unders | 43–34 | 42–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 14–12 STL in their last 26 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 26.