St. Louis Cardinals at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Alec BurlesonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Sonny GrayPitching9.0 IP, 0 ER, 11 K
Guardians- Nolan JonesBatting1-3
- Luis OrtizPitching7.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Arenado singled to left, Contreras scored, Nootbaar to third.5–0
- 6Arenado doubled to right, Burleson scored.4–0
- 3Burleson homered to right (368 feet), Winn scored.3–0
- 3Pagés homered to left (381 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- STL 53%
- ML STL -125 / CLE +105
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.0 pts
- STL: Elo 49.2%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- STL -114
- CLE +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.4 – 4.1 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +2 | STL: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Luis Ortiz: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +5 Elo | CLE 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 53.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 3.825th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.215th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.422nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 17th of 3018–21 | Road vs home | 20–1718th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 150113th of 30 |
| 14th of 301508 | Elo rating | 149918th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 43–39 | 37–42 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 16–24 | 11–21 |
| Underdog | 27–15 | 26–21 |
| Overs–unders | 44–38 | 35–44 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 3–3 CLE in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.