Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Michael BuschBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Shota ImanagaPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Cardinals- Masyn WinnBatting1-4
- Andre PallantePitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Crow-Armstrong scored, Swanson picked off and caught stealing second.3–0
- 8Crow-Armstrong scored, Swanson picked off and caught stealing second.3–0
- 4Happ walked, Busch scored, Hoerner to second, Kelly to third.2–0
- 2Busch homered to right (381 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 55%
- ML CHC -135 / STL +115
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.5 pts
- CHC: Elo 52.8%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- CHC -124
- STL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 5.0 – 4.5 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1541 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +3 | CHC: Shota Imanaga: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Andre Pallante: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +19 Elo | CHC 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 53.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.4 | Runs scored | 4.77th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.317th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.2 | Margin | +0.412th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 3022–18 | Road vs home | 26–168th of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15063rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 301541 | Elo rating | 151015th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 39–41 | 43–38 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 27–26 | 16–24 |
| Underdog | 12–15 | 27–14 |
| Overs–unders | 45–35 | 44–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 15–14 STL in their last 29 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 29.