Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Ian HappBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Matthew BoydPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Cardinals- Masyn WinnBatting1-3
- Erick FeddePitching3.2 IP, 7 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 5Shaw grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Swanson scored, Hoerner out at second, Busch to third.8–0
- 4Happ singled to right, Busch scored and Shaw scored.7–0
- 3Tucker homered to right center (409 feet).5–0
- 2McGuire homered to right (383 feet), Busch scored.4–0
- 2Busch singled to center, Swanson scored.2–0
- 1Happ homered to right (370 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 59%
- ML CHC -160 / STL +135
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.5 pts
- CHC: Elo 50.6%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- CHC -145
- STL +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.7 – 3.8 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +2 | CHC: Matthew Boyd: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Erick Fedde: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +4 Elo | CHC 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 54.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 54.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.4 | Runs scored | 4.86th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.316th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.1 | Margin | +0.510th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 4th of 3021–18 | Road vs home | 26–158th of 30 |
| 17th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15053rd of 30 |
| 4th of 301538 | Elo rating | 151415th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 38–41 | 43–37 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 26–26 | 16–24 |
| Underdog | 12–15 | 27–13 |
| Overs–unders | 45–34 | 44–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 14–14 STL in their last 28 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 28.