St. Louis Cardinals at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Brendan DonovanBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Miles MikolasPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Guardians- Gabriel AriasBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Slade CecconiPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Contreras homered to left center (431 feet).9–6
- 6Winn grounded out to second, Scott II scored.8–6
- 6Donovan hit sacrifice fly to center, Pozo scored, Scott II to third.7–6
- 6Scott II doubled to right, Arenado scored and Gorman scored, Pozo to third.6–6
- 6Gorman singled to center, Nootbaar scored, Arenado to second.4–6
- 5Burleson singled to left, Donovan scored and Winn scored.3–6
- 4Kwan tripled to right, Hedges scored.1–6
- 4Arias homered to center (427 feet), Jones scored.1–5
- 4Jones doubled to left, Thomas scored.1–3
- 4Schneemann grounded out to second, Santana scored, Thomas to third.1–2
- 4Manzardo homered to center (409 feet).1–1
- 1Donovan homered to right center (391 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 52%
- ML STL +100 / CLE -120
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- 0.0 pts
- CLE: Elo 52.2%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- CLE -109
- STL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.2 – 4.3 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +9 | STL: Miles Mikolas: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Slade Cecconi: team allows 0.46 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +15 Elo | CLE 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 51.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 3.725th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.215th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.522nd of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 14th of 3019–21 | Road vs home | 20–1819th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 150112th of 30 |
| 14th of 301511 | Elo rating | 149618th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 44–39 | 37–43 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 17–24 | 11–21 |
| Underdog | 27–15 | 26–22 |
| Overs–unders | 44–39 | 35–45 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 4–3 CLE in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.